纽约时报：5步选出优质基金

Five Ways to Pick Mutual-Fund Winners

5步选出优质基金

By JONATHAN BURTON
August 16, 2008

How good are the mutual funds in your 401(k)?

你的401计划（一项退休计划）中的共同基金够好吗？

It would be nice if there were a scorecard. But rating the investments you hope will glitter in your golden years can be a confusing process. That's one reason why so many investors have embraced so-called target-date or lifecycle funds, which take care of the guesswork.

如果有个记分卡也就不用这么为难了。评价一个能让你晚年无忧的投资会让人迷惑。这也是为什么很多人最终选择定期或终身基金的一个原因，它让人省去不少脑力。

Those who still want to pick their own 401(k) investment lineup often don't know how, or where, to start. So they wind up defaulting to funds with the best track records.

对于那些仍然希望自己选择投资组合的人来说，可能会感到无从下手。所以，最后他们根据基金的历史成绩来做判断。

That's not strategy, it's performance chasing -- buying high and selling low -- and it leads investors nowhere, says David B. Armstrong, managing director at Monument Wealth Management, in Alexandria, Va.

毫无策略，单纯追逐业绩，高买低卖，这会让投资人最终无所适从。弗吉尼亚州亚历山大市丰碑财富管理公司的常务董事大卫B.阿姆斯壮如是说。

"They're picking mutual funds that have been doing very well and not giving proper consideration to the appropriate allocation," he says.

"他们选择那些表现良好的共同基金，但很少考虑它的适度分配状况，"他说。

To tell which stock funds in your retirement account are right for you, look beyond performance. Take a page from the methods investment experts likely used for your own company's 401(k) plan. Here are five things to keep in mind:

要知道你退休账户里哪些股票型基金是正确的，眼光必须离开它的业绩。像一个投资专家那样照顾你的401计划。把如下5条记在脑子里：

1. Expenses 费用

In many cases, 401(k) plans offer one actively managed fund and one indexed alternative. Since indexed management is usually cheaper, make sure you're getting your money's worth from an actively run choice.

很多情况下，401计划会包含一只激进型基金和一只指数型基金供选择。一般来说指数型基金要便宜一些，所以你要确信你选择的激进型基金物有所值。

Costs matter. An index fund that charges one-tenth of a percentage point in yearly management fees, for example, has a full percentage point head start over a fund that takes 1.1%.

费用。指数型基金申购赎回会收取年度管理费的十分之一，换一只基金需要支付1.1%的费用。

Accordingly, the manager of the more expensive portfolio has a steep hurdle to deliver above-average returns over time. Don't pay top dollar for mediocre results.

因此，一个较昂贵的投资组合的经理很难有超越平均收益率的表现。不要为平庸支付不平庸的费用。

"Every penny we can save on expenses is going to translate to better performance," says Donald Trone, president of the Foundation for Fiduciary Studies, which educates investment advisers.

"我们花费本可以存下来的每一分硬币正在变成基金的业绩，" 专门培养投资顾问的Foundation for Fiduciary Studies 总裁Donald Trone说。

2. Risk-Adjusted Return 风险调整后收益

You can't judge a fund by its advertised performance. Understand the risks a manager took to generate those returns -- maybe the fund loaded up on a hot stock, or the manager traded frequently, playing the market's momentum. Otherwise, you run a risk too -- that you'll fork over good money to a fund that exposed you to more volatility that you can comfortably handle.

你不能凭广告来判断一只基金。要弄清楚基金经理为高收益所承担的风险，有可能基金正在满仓一只过热的股票，也可能基金经理通过频繁交易来抬高股价。同时，你也在承担风险。所以，你要把钱放在风险水平你能够坦然接受的的基金哪里。

"Big stakes in any one sector is good reason to dig deeper," says Christine Benz, director of personal finance at investment researcher Morningstar. "How does that fit with the manager's strategy, and how has that played out for the fund?"

"大收益背后总有大陷阱，"晨星投资研究个人理财部门总监Christine Benz说。"它们是否和基金经理的策略吻合，基金又如何全身而退？"

One key measure of a fund's risk-adjusted return is a technical term called standard deviation. It shows how much a fund's performance varies, or deviates, from its expected return.

测度基金风险调整后收益的一个关键，是称作标准偏离度的技术指标。它显示一只基金就其期望收益所对应的组合多样性，或者偏离度。

You won't need a slide rule. Sites such as Morningstar.com do the math for you. Click on "Risk Measures." The bigger the number, the more risky the fund. So if Fund A gained 11% with a standard deviation of 18, and Fund B rose 10% with a standard deviation of 12, then Fund B achieved almost the same results with two-thirds of the volatility and would have a better risk-adjusted return.

你不需要一把计算尺。像Morningstar.com这样的网站已经做好了计算，点击"Risk Measures."数字越大，基金的风险也越大。所以假如A基金11%的收益率对应的是18的偏离度，而B基金10%的收益率对于12的偏离度的话，说明B基金在几乎相近的收益水平下它的波动性只是A基金的三分之二，显然B的风险调整后收益更好。

"Standard deviation can help you see which fund has had higher volatility and has probably been taking more risks," Ms. Benz says.

"标准偏离度能够帮你看清哪只基金的波动性更大，那么，它的风险水平可能也也更高，"Benz先生说。

3. Results vs. Peers 和真正的同类比较业绩

You also want to look at a fund's performance relative to its category. Investors frequently make the mistake of comparing funds with "the market," which usually means the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.

你还需要弄清楚基金业绩所关联的投资品种。投资人常犯的错误就是拿基金表现和"市场"做比较。所谓"市场"通常指的是标准普尔500股票指数。

But the S&P 500 is a large-company U.S. stock index. The only funds to rate against it are large-cap U.S. stock funds; anything else is simply misplaced.

然而，标普500是美国大公司的股票指数。唯一可以和它作比较的就是美国大盘股基金，其他的都比错了对象。

A small-cap stock fund may look great compared with the S&P 500, but it may have underperformed the more fitting Russell 2000 Index benchmark. Similarly, an international small-cap stock fund has no business in the same pool as its U.S. small-cap counterpart. Again, Morningstar.com makes this information readily available. Click on "Total Returns" to see how a fund stacks up in its category.

一只小盘股基金和标普500比可能比较出色，但如果拿来和更贴切的Russell 2000指数相比就会显得逊色。同理，一只国际小盘股基金和美国本土小盘股基金也没有可比性。同样地，这个信息在Morningstar.com也有显示，点击"Total Returns"，查看一只基金所属的合适分类。

Be sure that all of your fund choices are related, says Mr. Armstrong, the Virginia financial adviser. If they're not, "you really can't determine if the portfolio manager is doing a good job" or if you should just buy an index fund.

请确认你选择的基金所关联的市场和股票，维吉尼亚理财顾问阿姆斯壮先生说。如果不能，"你就无法判断基金经理干得到底怎么样"或者你不如干脆去买一只指数型基金。

4. Portfolio Yield 组合红利

Performance-chasing is bad enough, but investors also reach for yield -- the dividend income that can provide a cushion in difficult markets.

业绩追踪已经够差劲的了，甚至还有投资人在搜寻红利――可以缓解弱市冲击的收益分红。

"I've seen clients get stars in their eyes over a high yield," Mr. Armstrong says. They forget there's a reason for this excess payout -- and not always a good one.

"我常看到有客户一看到高分红就眼冒金星，"阿姆斯壮先生说。他们忘了这种额外支出是有理由――并不总是好理由。

Beware of a fund with a yield that's out of synch with its peers. Maybe the high yield comes from a heavy dose of financial-services stocks or lower-quality investments. In that case, not only is the yield shaky -- some banks have cut or eliminated their dividends, for example -- but even the most generous dividend won't offset major declines.

假如一只基金能拿到比同行更多的红利。可能这种红利来自于重仓的金融类股票或者劣质的投资。这种情况下，不仅红利不稳定――一些银行已经减少甚至取消分红，更遭到是――举例而言――最慷慨的红利也抵不过股价的下跌。

5. Manager Tenure 基金经理任期

The big consulting firms that cobble 401(k) plans together grow cautious when a fund switches managers. And you should, too.

当一个基金换了经理之后，401计划总体涨势谨慎，这个时候你也应当谨慎。

Fund companies will protest to the contrary, but new managers are game-changers. While the fund's investment style might not be drastically altered, you can bet the portfolio itself will get a makeover.

基金公司可能抗议说，情况完全不是这样，新基金经理是战略调整人。基金的投资风格不一定马上改变，但你可以打赌投资组合肯定会有重大调整，梳妆打扮，新官上任三把火。

If a fund manager has been on the job for only a year, then the fund's three- and five-year performance isn't his to boast about.

如果一个基金经理仅仅在位一年，那前三四年的业绩根本不是他吹牛的资本。

You can be more charitable when a new manager is a veteran who has experienced bull- and bear-market cycles.

如果这个新雏是个经历过牛熊大循环的老手，那么你可以再仁慈一些，留下来。

Says Lou Stanasolovich, president of Legend Financial Advisors in Pittsburgh, Pa.: "If a manager changes, you're in effect starting a new fund."

宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡市传奇理财顾问的总裁Lou Stanasolovich说，"换了基金经理，实际上等于你换了一只基金。