经济学人：重归平衡

Rebalancing act

重归平衡

Aug 14th 2008 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition

America's exports are now growing faster than China's, helping to reduce the strains in the world economy

美国出口增长超过中国，有助缓解全球经济紧张局面

 

AFP

OVER the past decade, the world economy has been plagued by widening imbalances, most notably America's current-account deficit and China's surplus―both the largest in the world. There is not much to celebrate about the world economy at present, but at least it is becoming more balanced. Not only are trade gaps in America and China shrinking, but the composition of growth within countries is also looking healthier.

过去十年，全球经济遭受严重的不均衡侵害，最显著的莫过于美国经常性赤字以及中国的贸易顺差――二者都是世界之最。目前的全球经济状况很难让人感到欣慰，但不论如何，这种局面出现了扭转的迹象。不仅中美的贸易差距正在缩小，两国的内部增速也正趋于健康。

For the first time in years, China's exports are growing more slowly than America's. In the 12 months to June (the latest month available for both countries), America's exports grew by 23%, well ahead of China's 17% (in dollar terms). Export volumes show a similar trend. China's rose by 11% in the year to the second quarter, while America's climbed by 12% (see left-hand chart). Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, expects China's real export growth to fall to zero by the end of this year and to turn negative next year.

多年来第一次，中国的出口增速远低于美国。截至今年六月（可利用的最新数据），过去一年，美国出口增长23%，超过中国的17%（以美元计算）。贸易总额也有类似趋向。第二季度，中国出口总额同比增11%，美国增12%（见左表）。渣打银行的经济学家斯蒂芬・格林预计到今年年底，中国出口将出现零增长，明年将可能出现负增长。

In July China's exports surged a mighty 27% from where they were a year before, but this does not alter the picture much. China's monthly trade figures are notoriously volatile and if exports are converted into yuan―the currency which matters for China's GDP growth―growth has fallen sharply to an average of 12% in the past three months, from 35% in early 2005. Meanwhile, import growth has quickened over the past year, due in part to higher oil bills. As a result, China's trade surplus in yuan terms in the first seven months of this year was almost 20% smaller than in the same period of 2007. Even in dollar terms it had fallen by 10%.

7月，中国出口同比增长突然提高到27%，但这一数据无法改变整体预期。众所周知，中国单月贸易数据极不稳定，如果按人民币计算，过去3个月的出口平均增速从2005年早期的35%急速下滑到了12%。同期，受高油价影响，过去一年中国的进口出现加速。一来一去，按人民币计算，中国过去7个月的贸易顺差相比去年同期萎缩了近20%。就算按美元计算，这个数字也达到了10%。

That is not to say that there will be a sharp drop in China's current-account surplus this year. In dollar terms, it is likely to remain roughly as big as in 2007 because higher income from its vast foreign assets will offset the smaller trade surplus. But as a share of GDP, it will shrink sharply because China's economy is expanding so rapidly. Mr Green forecasts a current-account surplus of 9% of GDP in 2008 and 7% in 2009, down from 11.3% last year. Thus China will be able to claim that its surplus has fallen sharply, even as its critics, in America and elsewhere, will continue to argue that it has barely budged in dollar terms. No one can dispute, however, that China's exports are growing much more slowly than its economy (which is galloping along at 20% in nominal yuan terms). This is occurring at the same time as America's export machine has revved up, which is bound to help trade imbalances unwind.

这并不等于说，中国的外贸盈余会在今年大幅回落。按美元计算，这个规模基本上会接近于2007年度的水平，因为它巨额的海外资产所带来的收益将会填补贸易顺差萎缩带来的损失。但最为GDP的一部分，鉴于中国经济增速迅猛，它所占的份额将会大幅减少。格林先生预测，外贸盈余所占GDP比重2008年约为9%，到2009年为7%，相比上一年度下降11.3%。因此，尽管中国声称它的贸易顺差正在急速下滑，但美国和别处的批评家们仍然认为，这种变化按美元计算微乎其微。无人否认，中国出口相对于它的经济增速（这一速度按人民币计高达20%）是明显地放缓了。同时，美国的机械出口大幅上升，这将有助于恢复贸易平衡。

Turning to America, so far the decline in its total trade deficit has been modest, because of the higher cost of oil imports. But the underlying improvement is more impressive. Excluding oil, the trade deficit has fallen by almost one-quarter since 2006. At the same time as exports have soared, real imports fell by 2% in the year to the second quarter, dragged down by weak domestic demand. If the recent drop in oil prices is sustained, the total trade deficit will shrink more rapidly in the second half of this year than it did in the first half. Meanwhile, America's overall current-account deficit has fallen to around 5% of GDP from a peak of 6.2% in the third quarter of 2006. Merrill Lynch forecast that it could drop to around 3.5% of GDP in 2009.

在看美国，因为进口油价的飙升，到目前它的严重逆差出现了好转。但根本上还是因为经济出现了改观。包括石油在内，美国的贸易赤字自2006年以来减少了近四分之一。与此同时出口大幅增长，而进口受到内需萎缩的影响，二季度同比下降2%。如果油价继续回落，今年下半年，总贸易赤字的回落速度将超过上半年。与此同时，美国的总体财政赤字下滑到了占GDP的5%，2006年高峰时这一比例是6.2%。美林证券预测，到2009年这一比例有可能降到占GDP的3.5%。

Bilaterally, it is the same story: America's exports to China were 20% higher in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2007, while its imports from China were up only 4%. However, America's import bill for goods from China is so huge―four times that of exports―that the rising exports have not dented America's overall trade deficit with China. The changing patterns, buried beneath the headline figures, are very hard to spot.

双向比较，今年上半年美国对华出口同比增长了20%，而进口同比增幅只有4%。尽管如此，考虑到美国对华进口额十分巨大――是出口的4倍，这一点增长还很难改变美国总体上的巨大逆差。巨大标题下的小变化，看起来很难让人发现。

All hail China's Olympian shoppers

向中国的奥运消费者致敬

What has caused the shifts? The cheaper dollar is one factor; until its rebound this summer, it had lost about a quarter of its value on a real trade-weighted basis since its peak in 2002. That not only made American exports more competitive, it made imports into America less attractive. Probably of more importance, though, are the shifts in domestic spending. America's real domestic demand has stagnated over the past year, whereas China's has risen by 10% as its citizens have picked up the baton from flagging American consumers. In dollar terms, which better measure China's ability to buy imports, its domestic spending has soared by a whopping 33%.

什么促成了这种转变？美元的贬值是原因之一；直到今年夏天它开始反弹之前，美元的实际贸易加权价值比2002年的峰值减少了大约四分之一。这不只是提高了美国的出口竞争力，也使得进口到美国的货品失去了吸引力。最重要的影响可能是改变了美国人的消费习惯。过去一年美国的实际内需停滞了，而中国却增长了10%，就好比是中国公民从士气低落的美国消费者手中接过了接力棒。折合美元――这样能更好地衡量中国购买进口货的能力――中国国内消费飞升了33%。

Global rebalancing requires a redistribution of growth within countries as well as a redistribution between countries. Until last year, America's growth was driven by an unsustainable consumer boom; now it is being supported entirely by external demand. Without the boost from net exports, real GDP would have fallen since the third quarter of 2007.

全球经济平衡要求完成增长成果在国内的再分配，一如它要求国与国之间的在分配。去年以前，美国经济主要依靠不稳定的内需拉动，而现在它的增长机会完全依靠外部的支持。假如不是净出口的增长，从2007年第三季度开始，真实的GDP就已经在下滑了。

Meanwhile, in China consumer spending is now growing faster than exports (see right-hand chart). Retail sales jumped by 23% in nominal terms in the year to July, and 16% in real terms. Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research firm, estimates that consumption contributed two-thirds of China's GDP growth in the first half of 2008, up from 44% in 2007.

与此同时，中国的内部消费增速开始超过出口增长（见右表）。到今年7月零售额名义增长达23%，实际增长16%。北京当地的研究机构龙州经讯估计，2008年消费占GDP增长占三分之二的比重，远超过2007年代44%的水平。

In America weak consumer spending is likely to continue to dampen imports over the next year or so. Auguring tougher times ahead, the country's retail sales in July fell for the first time in five months. Less clear is how strong America's export performance can remain, given the recent rebound in the dollar and slower growth in the rest of the world.

明年甚至以后，美国疲软的内需似乎会继续让进口萎缩。接下来的日子并不好过，全国零售总额7月出现了5个月来说首次下滑。很难看清，美国的强劲的出口增长是否能够继续，以给刚开始反弹的美元和全球普遍放缓的经济有力支撑。

The greenback remains cheap by many measures and so should continue to support America's sales abroad. Slower growth elsewhere in the world is a more serious concern. Japan's economy fell by an annualised 2.4% in the second quarter, figures released on August 13th showed, after growing strongly in the first quarter. Growth in the euro area also seems to have come to an end. But these two places account for only about 20% of America's exports; much more important are emerging economies which now buy more than half of its exports.

从多方面衡量，美元依旧维持低价，这应该能够支持美国的出口。全球其余地区经济的放缓更值得关心。8月13日的数据显示，经过第一季度的显著增长，日本经济二季度回落到2.4%的年度水平以下。欧元区的经济的增长似乎也到了终点。好在这两个地方只占到美国对外出口的20%，新兴经济的体的地位更为重要，它们占到美对外出口总量的一半以上。

Economic growth in developing countries is likely to slow over the coming year. But what matters far more for American exports is the growth in their domestic demand and hence their appetite for imports. Goldman Sachs forecasts that real domestic demand in the four BRIC countries―Brazil, Russia, India and China―will grow by over 9% next year, roughly the same as in 2007 and 2008. If so, this will be good for American exporters.

发展中国家的经济增速也在放缓。不过对美国来说，只要他们还有足够的胃口消化从美国进口的产品，就值得欣慰。高盛预测，金砖四国下一年度的内需增长将超过9%，大约接近2007和2008年的水平。如果是的话，那对美国的出口商将是个好消息。

For all the improvements, trade imbalances are still too big. It is worrying that since mid-July China has stopped allowing the yuan to rise against the dollar; indeed, the currency has since fallen by 1%. China has also increased some tax rebates for exporters. Brad Setser, of America's Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, argues that if China tries to bolster its GDP growth by supporting exports, it will hinder global rebalancing. Instead, with surpluses in its budget and current-account, China should prop up growth by further stimulating domestic demand. That means increasing spending on infrastructure, schools and health care.

虽然改观不少，贸易失衡的局面仍旧严峻。让人担忧的是，从7月中开始，中国终止了人民币对美元的升值进程；事实上，此后又贬值了1%。同时中国增加出口退税补贴。美国外交关系理事会的智囊Brad Setser说，假如中国为增加GDP而支持出口，将进一步阻碍全球贸易平衡的恢复。事实上，中国应该使用它庞大的外汇储备来拉动内需，比如增加基础设施投入，教育投入以及改进医疗等。

To be fair, the yuan has not fallen in trade-weighted terms over the past month, but it is still undervalued and needs to rise further. Mr Setser reckons that given high oil prices and sluggish American demand, China's trade surplus should already have fallen by more. Likewise, one might argue that without big tax cuts to prop up consumer spending, America's deficit would have shrunk further. If global rebalancing is to continue, America still needs to save more, and China to save less.

公平地说，过去一个月，人民币的加权购买力并没有下降，但它的价值依旧低估，未来有进一步升值的需要。Setser先生估计高油价加上美国内需萎缩，中国的出口顺差早该更大幅度地萎缩才对。同样地，也会有人争论说，如果不是大幅度消减税收刺激内需，美国的赤字会减少更多。要想全球贸易进一步恢复平衡，美国应该多存一些，中国应该少存一些。