华尔街日报：银行股暴跌

Bank Stocks Drop Anew Amid Worry
Over Falling Home Prices

银行股在低迷的房市中应声而落

By JAMES R. HAGERTY and JONATHAN KARP
August 13, 2008; Page A1

Stuck with a growing glut of foreclosed houses, banks and investors are shedding them at increasingly steep losses, potentially adding to the banking industry's red ink this year.

被越来越多的断供房屋所绑架，银行和地产投资商本已亏损累累的处境日益恶化。今年，整个银行业正在啦响警报。

Banks are selling foreclosed homes in some cases for less than half the price they fetched two or three years ago. The cuts are coming as the U.S. banking sector, slogging through its worst crisis in decades, bites the bullet out of fear that prices will keep falling.

个别银行被迫出售的断供房价格只有他们两年前发放贷款的一半。在房价继续下跌的恐惧预期中，整个美国银行业正面临几十年来最严重的危机，大规模的裁员也随之出现。

Financial stocks fell sharply Tuesday, following J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s warning late Monday that it expects "a continued decline in U.S. housing prices." The dour assessment included a roughly $1.5 billion trading loss related to the largest U.S. bank's holdings of mortgage-backed securities.

本周二，金融股普遍暴跌。根据摩根大通周一晚些时候的预测，"美国房价仍将继续下跌。"悲观估计，包括和美国最大银行相关的住房按揭类证券市值损失大约为15亿美元。

J.P. Morgan shares fell 9.5% Tuesday, while Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Wachovia Corp. fell about 12%. The declines marked a reversal in sentiment from recent optimism among some investors that the worst of the credit crunch might be over.

摩根大通股票单日下跌9.5%，雷曼兄弟控股和美联行公司下跌约12%。此次暴跌，让少数认为信贷危机最坏时刻可能已经过去的乐观投资者的预期落空。

J.P. Morgan's warning was notable because the bank has been ahead of the curve over the past year in sounding the alarm about emerging troubles, such as mounting defaults in home-equity loans and credit cards. The New York bank has sidestepped the worst of the problems that have forced many commercial and investment banks to slash their dividends and seek capital infusions in order to plug their leaky balance sheets.

摩根大通的曾经对银行业有过引人注目的警告，因为早在去年，随着住房贷款拖欠以及信用卡坏账等问题浮出水面，银行的危机警报就啦响了。纽约银行有幸躲过一劫，而很多商业银行和投行却不得不通过消减红利和四处融资来填补它们千疮百孔的报表。

The steep losses on sales of foreclosed homes are painful for banks and investors in the short run but should help clear the backlog. That would allow for an eventual recovery of the housing market and clean up the banks' balance sheets.

尽管短期来说，变卖断供房屋造成的巨额亏损是痛苦的，但却有助于他们及时清理烂摊子。这样将有助于房地产业的修整并使银行坏账得以及时处理。

One example of the deep price cuts on foreclosures: A 1,230-square-foot home in Corona, Calif., was sold by a unit of investment bank Credit Suisse in June for $198,000, down from $450,000 when the property sold in a regular transaction in December 2006.

这里有一个断供房价格大幅缩水的例子：加州科罗纳一套1，230平方尺的房子，在6月被瑞信投行以198，000美元的价格出售，而在2006年12月它的的正常交易价格是450，000美元。

"I do not think this is the time to be holding onto [foreclosed homes] and hoping for a better day," Daniel Mudd, chief executive of Fannie Mae, said during a conference call Friday.

"我并不认为现在是银行捂房惜售转机的好时候。"房利美的首席执行官Daniel Mudd在一次电话会议中如是说。

Banks and investors have grown more leery of the rising costs of holding onto vacant homes. Along with such expenses as insurance, lawn care and maintenance, banks are being hit with higher costs for complying with local regulations applying to vacant homes.

银行和投资人持有空置房的成本正在与日俱增。这种成本增加来自于保险，草坪修建以及房屋修缮，另外，地方政府调节空置房的措施也大大增加了银行的支出。

The price cutting may mean even deeper losses for banks, but in some areas price tags have fallen enough to entice bargain hunters back into the market. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes, prices in Las Vegas, Miami and Los Angeles are back to 2004 levels, while those in San Diego have retreated to 2003 levels.

房价暴跌也许造成了众多银行的巨额损失，但与此同时，部分地区的房价已经低到吸引投机客重新进场的程度。根据S&P/Case-Shiller地产指数显示，拉斯维加斯、迈阿密和洛杉矶的房价已经回到2004年的水平，而圣地亚哥的房价更是退回到了2003年。

Losses to banks on foreclosed properties result from a variety of factors, including declines in the home value below the loan balance; missed payments by the owner before the foreclosure; real-estate commissions; and the costs of repairs, taxes, insurance and maintenance while the bank or loan investor owns the property. The sum of all these costs is called the "loss severity."

断供抵押资产给银行造成的损失是多方面的，包括房价跌破贷款额度；银行收回抵押房之前，业主的长期断供；地产佣金；以及房屋修缮费用、税收、保险以及银行和投资人持有房屋期间必要的保养支出。所有这些亏损汇总统称为"亏损度"

For subprime loans, those to people with relatively poor credit records, loss severities averaged 41% of the loan balance in 2005 and 54% in the 12 months ended in May, according to Fitch Ratings. For loans made in 2006 and 2007 that end up being foreclosed, severities are likely to average more than 60%, Fitch says. Analysts at Credit Suisse see a range of 63% to 71% on foreclosed subprime loans by late next year, depending on how far home prices fall.

涉及到低信用水平的次级按揭，根据惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings），2005年的亏损度平均为贷款额度的41%和12个月后的54%。发生在2006和2007年的贷款，随着断供的出现，这一额度上升到超过60%。之后一年，瑞信银行的分析师认为，次按断供房贷亏损度在63%-72%之间，具体额度取决于当地房价下跌幅度。

Sparse Data

稀缺的数据

Comparable historical data are sparse. Chandrajit Bhattacharya, a Credit Suisse analyst, says severities were slightly higher after the housing slump of the early 1990s, but "current severities are rising much faster and in probability will be higher than the mid-1990s peak."

可资对比度历史数据非常稀少。瑞信银行的分析师Chandrajit Bhattacharya说，90年代初期房价崩溃之后，亏损度只出现了轻微的上升，但是"目前的亏损度上升要快点多，有可能超过90年代中期的巅峰期。"

Losses on prime loans also are growing, particularly on option adjustable-rate mortgages, or option ARMs. These loans allow borrowers to start with very low monthly payments, then face steep increases several years later. Wachovia disclosed last month that loss severities on option ARM foreclosures averaged 36% in the second quarter, up from 32% in the first quarter. Fannie Mae says severities on prime and Alt-A loans (a category between prime and subprime) recently have reached 40% in California.

传统按揭领域的损失也同样在加剧，特别是在可选浮动利率抵押贷款（ARMs）方面。这种贷款允许贷款人初期只承担极少的还款额，而几年以后还款额显著增加。美联行上个月透露，ARM贷款的亏损度在第二季度达到了36%的平均水平，第一季度这一额度为32%。房利美说，在加利福尼亚，传统按揭和Alt-A按揭（这种按揭介于传统按揭和次级按揭之间）的亏损度以及触及40%。

The pain may get worse before it starts to ease. A recent report from Barclays Capital estimates that there are 721,000 bank-owned homes nationwide, up from 112,000 two years ago. Barclays expects the total to rise 60% more before peaking in late 2009.

最坏的时刻可能还远没到来。巴克莱投行最近的一份报告估计，在全国范围内银行持有房屋的数量是721，000，两年前这个数字是112，000。巴克莱预计，在2009年代巅峰到来之前，总量还会有超过60%的增幅。

Financial institutions are acquiring homes through foreclosure much faster than they can sell them. Fannie Mae, a government-sponsored mortgage investor, disclosed last week that it acquired 44,071 homes through foreclosure during this year's first half but sold only 23,627, leaving a balance of 54,173 as of June 30.

金融机构通过断供这一渠道持有房屋的速度远超过他们的销售速度。房利美，一个政府发起的住房抵押贷款机构，上周透露，今年上半年他们共收回44，071套断供房，同期出售的只有23，627套，截止6月30号，房屋存量为54，173套。

Fannie said it is opening field offices in California and Florida to try to speed sales of such homes and is evaluating offers from unidentified parties interested in "bulk" purchases.

房利美，说他们在加州和佛罗里达设有开放的办事处，以期加快销售速度，而且有身份为明的团体表现出来浓厚的兴趣，表示要大批量购买。

Multiple Offers

各种各样的接盘人

Corona, considered one of the most desirable places to live in Riverside County, east of Los Angeles, has begun working through a huge inventory of foreclosed homes, says Pete Nyiri of Top Producers Realty, which is based in the city. A four-bedroom, 3,213-square-foot home at 1065 Trailview Lane was sold in June for $479,900 after fetching $685,000 in October 2005.

科罗纳，被认为是洛杉矶东部河滨郡最宜居的地区，巨量的房屋库存开始吸引买家。当地的机构Top Producers Realty里的Nyiri说，栈道街1065号一套面积3，213平方尺的4居室，2005年十月685，000接手，今年六月份已经按照479，900的价格售出。

"In the last five months, there has been a dramatic increase in sales, which correlates to the decline in prices," Mr. Nyiri says. "In the lower price range, many homes are getting multiple offers."

"在过去5个月，随之房价的下跌，销售量开始戏剧性地回升，" Nyiri先生说。"在低价区，很多房屋开始吸引各种买家。"

In the Anthem neighborhood of northeast Phoenix, a four-bedroom home was sold by a bank in February for $190,500. That compares with $275,000 paid by the former owners in November 2004. Using two mortgages, the former owners financed 100% of that purchase. Joseph Cohan of International Realty Services, who was the listing broker for the recent sale, says the home needed new carpeting and paint; ceiling fans and light fixtures had been ripped out.

凤凰城东北部Anthem周边，一个4居室在二月被一家银行以190，500美元的价格售出，它的上一个业主在2004年11月底购买价格是275，000。通过两次按揭，前业主得到房价的全额贷款。International Realty Services的地产中介约瑟夫・科恩，也是本次交易的代理人说，房子需要重新粉刷和铺地毯，吊扇和灯具也都脱落了。

Not all foreclosed homes go for a song -- even though the loss to the bank can be stiff. In the Las Vegas neighborhood of Summerlin, a foreclosed three-bedroom home, built in 1999, sold in May for $259,900, the original listing price, after just three days on the market. The same home sold for $215,000 in 2003; two years later, the owners refinanced the home for $408,500, apparently to extract cash from their home equity at a period when prices were soaring. William Jorgensen, the listing broker for the recent sale, said the Summerlin home sold quickly this year because it was in fairly good condition and in an attractive, upscale neighborhood.

以上是两个相对积极的例子――就算这样银行同样亏损累累。并不是所有断供房子都能卖个不错的价格。洛杉矶近郊的Summerlin，一栋建于1999年的3居室房子，五月以259，900美元的价格成交，这也是它刚上市3天时的原始价格。同样的房子在2003年被以215，000的价格出售过一次；两年后，业主用它拿到了408，500美元的抵押贷款。很显然，房价飞涨的时期，业主很乐意用它来换取大把的现金。本次交易的销售代理威廉・约根森说，Summerlin的房子今年卖掉很快，因为这里的环境很不错，而且这里高素质的邻居也很有吸引力。

Local governments are adding to the pressure on banks to sell foreclosed homes faster. Providence, R.I., recently imposed a property-tax surcharge on vacant properties to discourage banks and others from leaving them empty for long periods. Many cities now require banks to register the vacant homes they own and pay registration fees ranging from about $50 to $1,000.

地方政府正在对银行施加压力，促使他们更快地销售空置房。罗德州的普罗维登斯新近出台了一项财产附加税，以期阻止银行和其他投资人长期空置房屋。很多城市开始要求银行登记他们的空置房，并且征收50到1000美元不等的登记费用。

--David Enrich contributed to this article.