经济学人：有难同享

Aug 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Economies across the rich world are flirting with recession. Good news for the dollar

富国正遭衰退戏弄，美元境遇好转

FUND managers and bank executives have learnt that investors are often more forgiving if their peers are losing money as well. That lesson applies to economies and their currencies too. The world's financial troubles may have been triggered by America's housing bust, but it is other rich countries that are hurting most. Figures released on August 14th show that the euro-area economy shrank in the second quarter (see article). Japan's GDP also fell in the spring quarter. The Bank of England's governor, Mervyn King, said this week that Britain's economy is likely to stagnate for the foreseeable future (see article).

基金经理和银行理财师都有过这样的经验，当投资人发现周围的人和他一样遭受损失，那么他的心情会好过得多。这一条放在经济体和他们的货币上也同样灵验。全球金融问题也许是由美国的房产泡沫引发，但受伤最多的却是别的富国。8月14日的数据显示，欧元区经济在二季度出现萎缩。日本的GDP同样在春季出现下滑。英格兰银行理事默文・金在本周说，英国的经济在未来似乎有停滞的迹象。

The mess in America suddenly seems less awful. Indeed, a surge in export sales in June probably means that GDP growth for the most recent quarter will be revised up from 1.9% at an annualised rate, which is already respectable. The foreign-exchange markets have sensed a change in the weather. Over the past week, the dollar has swiftly gained ground against the euro and the pound. The thinking in the foreign exchanges is that it makes less sense to punish the dollar if other economies are doing so badly. The fear of a dollar rout, which has long stalked financial markets and even prompted the Federal Reserve chief, Ben Bernanke, to talk up the currency as recently as June, now seems to have evaporated.

相形之下，美国的乱象似乎不那么难看了。6月份出口额的大幅增长，可能意味着新一季度的GDP增速有望超过1.9%，这个本已经很不错的年度水平。外汇交易市场已经嗅探到了这种变化。上周以来，美元对欧元和英镑显著升值。外汇交易市场的想法显然是，既然其他经济体的表现这么差，那接下来就没有什么理由继续惩罚美元。整个金融市场美元奔溃的担忧由来已久，甚至美联储主席伯南克在6月份也有类似表示，这个问题现在看来已经不是问题了。

One reason for thinking that fear will not return is the broad foundation for the dollar's rally. Part of the story is the recent sharp fall in the oil price: because America's economy has most to lose and least to gain from expensive oil. America is a big user of oil, compared with fuel-efficient Europe, so more dollars than euros flow into the oil-exporters' coffers when oil becomes dear. The euro area also gets more of its currency back through export sales. It ships more than three times as much in exports to cash-rich oil producers as America does.

以上恐惧消失的理由之一是美元复苏的根基宽广。故事的一部分是最近油价的大幅下挫：因为高油价对美国经济来说弊远大于利。与提倡经济燃料的欧洲相比，美国是个耗油大国，所以当油价上涨后，美元比欧元更多地流入石油输出国的保险箱。相反，通过出口，欧元区甚至回流了更多的货币。欧盟对产油富国的出口量是美国的3倍。

You cannot be sure that the oil-price fall will last. But markets may also sense that America is likely to recover more quickly than other struggling rich-world economies. The trigger for the dollar's rise against the euro was a reluctant acknowledgment on August 7th by Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank (ECB), that the bank's fear of a harder landing for the euro area was becoming reality. Few expect the ECB to cut interest rates soon. Inflation is far too high for comfort and is unlikely to drop much until 2009. But markets took Mr Trichet's concession to mean that the next move in euro-zone interest rates is likely to be downward, with the first reduction possible next year.

很难确定油价会继续下跌。但市场已经感觉到，相对于那些苦苦挣扎的富国们，美国似乎恢复得更快。8月7日，欧洲中央银行行长特里谢很不情愿地承认，美月对欧元开始升值，欧洲央行对欧元区经济硬着陆的担心正在成为事实。一些人预期欧洲央行会很快下调利率，令人不安的高通胀似乎在2009年之前没有下降的迹象。但市场的表现还是迫使特里谢作出让步的表示，欧元区的利率将有肯能进一步下调，第一次降息可能在明年。

By then, American interest rates may be heading in the opposite direction. This chance of a narrower interest-rate gap has also helped lift the dollar. Many criticised the Fed for keeping interest rates too low for too long after the dotcom bust earlier this decade. But such was the sluggishness of the euro-area economy back then that the ECB did not feel ready to raise interest rates until December 2005, long after the Fed started tightening. That downturn demonstrated how quickly America's economy can bounce back, and how painfully slowly the euro zone tends to emerge from the doldrums.

同时，美国的利率可能会向相反的方向调整。这种微小的利差也在帮助提振美元。很多人都曾批评，从本世纪网络泡沫破裂以来，美国维持低利率的时期过长。但在美国收紧银根很久之后的2005年12月，欧元区才实施了因为萧条而延后了的加息行动。美国经济下降的快也恢复的快，而欧元区要经历多久的疼痛才会摆脱低迷。

The silver dollar lining

坏消息中的好消息

If the oil price keeps falling and America's housing bust bottoms out soon―as it may (see article)―how far would a dollar rally go? On some measures, such as purchasing-power parity, the greenback still looks cheap against the euro. American visitors to Europe complain about how expensive everything is; travellers in the other direction are delighted by how far their budget stretches. But the dollar is cheap for a reason. Economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, reckon that the euro-dollar exchange rate required to keep America's current-account deficit at a sustainable level is around $1.47―not far below today's value.

假如油价继续回落，美国的房产泡沫很快破裂触底――很有可能――美元会复原到什么程度？从某些方面衡量，比如等价购买力，美元相对欧元依旧疲软。美国游客到欧洲总是抱怨每样东西都很贵；欧洲的游客到美国后却觉得他们的预算非常宽松。不过美元的疲软是有理由的。位于华盛顿的彼特森国际经济研究所的经济学家们估算出，要维持美国经常性赤字在一个稳定的水平，美元兑欧元的合理汇率大约在1.47左右――离当前价值不远。

Yet even if the dollar rally turns out to be modest, the lesson of the past week is that America's economy is not uniquely frail. Creditors, such as Germany and Japan, that played no direct part in the housing and credit booms have lived off the extra demand for their wares. They are now struggling to find other motors for their economies. And as the gloom spreads, one cloud has lifted. The dollar's revival is likely to make Asian central banks and other large holders of reserve assets more comfortable about sticking with the greenback. The risk of a dollar rout, with the incalculable wreckage that would imply for all asset markets, is thankfully greatly reduced.

就算是美元的升值最终相对温和，但上周我们还是学到了一课：并不只有美国的经济是脆弱的。像德国和日本这样的债权国，虽然并没有在美国的房市泡沫中担当主要角色，目前也在承受着阵痛。他们要为本国的产品寻找出路，也要为经济发展寻找新的动力。尽管阴霾仍在蔓延，一片乌云至少已经散去。美元的复苏让那些和美元挂钩的亚洲央行们以及其他资产储备商们的日子好过了些，因为几乎涉及所有资本市场的支离破碎的损失，让人欣慰地少了一些。