August 20, 2008, 10:31 am
Are China Stocks Heading Out of Deep Water?
中国股市止跌了吗？
While the Beijing Olympics wow the world, China's stock market is also winning a gold medal.
At the high dive.
北京奥运震惊世界的的同时，中国股市也拿到了一枚高台跳水金牌。
Share price indices there have crashed by 60% since last autumn, hitting fresh new lows even as the new "new" China goes on display before the TV cameras.
去年秋季以来，股指跌幅超过60%，不断地刷新了"新低"之后的一个接一个"新低"，股市在镜头前的忘情表演仍在继续。
To put this in context, the Chinese market has just fallen harder and farther than Wall Street did in 1929 and Japan in 1990.
比较来看，中国股市的跌幅在速度和深度上已经超过了1929年的华尔街和1990年的日本。
Other Asian markets have plunged as well. Hong Kong and Mumbai have fallen by a third. Many others are down as much as 25%.
其余亚洲市场同样出现暴跌。香港和孟买指数跌幅达三分之一。很多其余市场的跌幅也达到了25%。
It would, of course, be particularly dangerous if this presages a sharp economic slowdown in Asia. The West is already staggering under the weight of its own financial crisis. Booming Asian economies were supposed to help pull us through.
假如这预示着亚洲经济的急速萎靡，那情况将更加危险。西方世界正经历着金融危机的阵痛，他们还指望着繁荣的亚洲能够拉他们一把。
But the most obvious direct impact on Western wallets so far has been on the emerging market funds held by ordinary investors.
不过西方世界损失最多的可能是那些把钱投在新兴市场基金的普通投资人。
Of course these were hottest and most in vogue right at the top - with predictable consequences.
当然，这项投资曾经炙手可热并有一个似乎可预见的美好未来。
Americans had a record $226 billion invested in emerging market stock funds at the peak last October, according to data compiled by industry analysts Financial Research Corp. They poured in $12 billion in the last two months of the boom. And they kept buying on the way down, investing another $4.8 billion after the bubble popped.
根据金融研究公司的行业分析师收集到的数据，去年十月的巅峰时期，美国投资新兴市场基金规模曾创造了2260亿美元的记录。在泡沫破裂前的最后两个月，他们又增投了120美元。之后再下跌过程中仍旧一路购买，在泡沫破裂后仍旧增资48亿美元。
A lot of that investment has now, of course, gone to "money heaven." Cue harp music.
毫无疑问，这些投资中的相当部分如今已经到达了竖琴袅袅的"金钱天堂"。
When it comes to investing, there is no safety in numbers. None. And the hottest investments can fry you.
投资中没有所谓的安全系数，越是狂热的投资，其热度越有可能把你先煎后炸。
Today, those investors are wondering whether to cut their losses or hang on and hope for better times. Meanwhile those who prudently sat out the boom and waited for a better chance to get in may wonder if that moment has arrived.
如今，这些投资人正在忍痛割肉和戴套等待转机之间犹豫。而与此同时，那些泡沫破裂前就早早离开市场等待进场时机的投资人，可能考虑的是现在是不是进场的时候了。
The short answer is that while Asian stock markets are certainly more reasonable value again, they are still not at the kind of bargain levels seen in 2001-2003.
简而言之，亚洲股市的估值确实合理了很多，不过仍没有合理到2001-2003年间的水平。
Asian stock markets excluding Japan are now valued at about 1.3 times annual sales, according to data from FactSet. That's a long way below last year's peak level.
根据来自FactSet的数据，目前亚洲股市不包括日本，市值大约是其年销售额的1.3倍，和巅峰时期相比，已经低了很多。
But early in this decade they fell well below one times sales.
不过几年以前，这个市值与销售额比值曾处于一倍以下的水平。
The Singapore market, which has been one of the soundest and most stable investments in Asia over the years, now boasts a dividend yield of nearly 4% again. It touched a low of just 2% last year. (Dividend yields rise when share prices fall, and vice versa). But back in 2003 it topped 5%.
新加坡市场是多年来亚洲最健全和稳定的市场，目前宣称其年度股利收益率接近4%。去年它曾触及2%的低点。（股利收益率随股价下跌而升高，反之亦然）。然而，在2003年它曾达到5%的高点。
Few Westerners know Asian equity markets as well as 24-year veteran Hugh Young, investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, a British company, in Singapore. The Brits tend to be old hands at emerging markets. It's something to do with the legacy of empire.
很少有人能像有24年市场经验的杨修（音）那样了解亚洲资本市场，他是新加坡的一家英国公司，阿伯丁投资管理公司的投资经理。英国人是新兴市场的投资老手，这一点可能和日不落帝国的历史遗产有关。
(I have a small stake in one of Mr Young's mutual funds, but the better value probably lies in the London-listed closed-end funds, such as Aberdeen New Dawn, which trade below net asset values.)
Mr Young began backing away from the mania two years ago, moving money into more conservative investments. He inevitably "underperformed" � till the bubble burst.
（我有少量杨先生主持的共同基金，不过更超值的可能是伦敦上市的那些封闭基金，像Aberdeen New Dawn基金，它的交易价低于资产净值。）两年以前，杨先生开始从过热的市场离开，把钱投到更为保守的领域。在泡沫破裂之前，他不可避免地"业绩不佳"。
Today he says valuations are about in the middle of historic ranges, on around 14.5 times forecast earnings.
他说，今天14.5倍的预期市盈率大概处于历史的中间水平。
But he warns they may come under further pressure, as analysts' earnings forecasts are still too optimistic.
不过，他警告说因为分析师的盈利预测仍然过于乐观，股市未来可能仍有压力。
"The Street is expecting quite strong earnings growth, which I'm afraid to say is quite unrealistic," he says. The biggest problem is inflation, which is now squeezing corporate profit margins. Mr Young is still sticking to blue chip investments � like top Indian software companies Infosys, Satyam and Tata Consultancy, the old Hong Kong trading companies Swire Pacific and Jardine Matheson, and property companies like Singapore's City Developments in Singapore and Iyala Land in the Philippines.
"投资人期望收益快速增长，我认为这很不现实，"他说。最大的问题是通货膨胀，它正在挤压公司利润率。杨先生仍然持有部分蓝筹股――像印度顶级软件公司Infosys、Satyam和Tata顾问公司，已经一些古老的香港贸易公司如太古集团、怡和公司，还有部分地产公司像新加坡的新加坡城市开发公司和菲律宾的Lyala Land。
On the positive side, Asian economies and companies have avoided many of the problems facing the West. Balance sheets are strong. Economies are still growing by about 6% a year. Mr Young doesn't expect that to slow by more than a percentage point or two over the next couple of years. Many banks, particularly in the better regulated environments, have stuck to traditional banking and remained well capitalized. However, as Mr Young points out, economic growth doesn't always translate into investment returns.
从好的方面看，亚洲经济和亚洲公司避开了西方国家正面对的很多严重问题。没有多少财政坏账，经济依旧以每年6%的速度增长。杨先生并不认为增长率在未来两年会下降超过1到2个百分点。很多银行，特别是管理环境良好的银行，业务锁定在传统的金融业务上面，而且仍就保持良好的资本化水平。然而无论怎样，正如杨先生指出的那样，经济增长并不总是转变为投资收益。
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