经济学人：鸟巢汤里的中国股市

China's stockmarket

In the bird's-nest soup

鸟巢汤里的中国股市

Aug 21st 2008 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition

Chinese shares enjoy a brief moment of respite

中国股票享受短暂的喘息

 

INVESTORS had long ago seen their hopes dashed of a pre-Olympic boom in China's stockmarket. Indeed, among the shares hardest hit this summer were those that unscrupulous brokers had touted as sure-fire winners from the games: restaurants selling Peking duck, hotels, and the like. But after a sudden 8% gain on August 20th, an even more tantalising idea emerged: could they benefit from a post-Olympic bounce?

中国股市的投资人很早就看到他们期望的前奥运行情破灭了。尽管在股价狂跌的这个夏天，仍然有不少毫无良知的炒家在推销所谓的"奥运确定受益股"：诸如卖北京烤鸭的餐馆，以及酒店等等。然而，在8月20日指数突然暴涨8%之后，甚至更多迫不及待的念头又开始浮出水面：他们能从后奥运反弹行情中受益吗？

A number of foreign fund managers have begun poking around the market, impressed by the valuations. Even after this week's rally, stocks were trading at 14 times 2008 earnings―not a steal, but still far cheaper than the 40 times earnings at which they traded at their 2007 peak.

很多国外基金经理在市场边徘徊良久，因为被目前的估值所吸引。即便经过本周的反弹，股票仍旧在2008年盈利的14倍水平交易――算不上捡大便宜，不过比起他们参与买卖的2007年峰值时40倍的水平无疑便宜了很多。

The catalyst for this week's rally was a pervasive rumour that often crops up when sentiment becomes too jaded: government intervention, either to prop up the market or the economy. One of the cheerleaders, Frank Gong, JPMorgan's chief economist in Asia, said China's top officials were "carefully considering" an economic-stimulus package of 200-400 billion yuan ($29 billion-58 billion), or about 1-1.5% of GDP. There was also talk of repatriating some Chinese money that had been tied up in American dollar assets, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the troubled mortgage agencies; of reinstating rebates for exporters; and of rolling back appreciation of the yuan. Among the stocks that rose strongly were Baosteel, China Railway, and some beleaguered property stocks. All are potential beneficiaries of strong growth.

上周反弹的催化剂是一个人气低迷时常被人广为传播的流言：政府将出台干预政策，刺激股市和经济增长。乐观者之一，摩根大通亚洲首席经济学家龚方雄说，中国高层正"谨慎考虑"一项2000-4000亿元，或1-1.5%GDP的经济刺激一揽子方案。还有说法是中国正准备收回海外与美元资产挂钩的人民币，包括投资于深陷困境的抵押贷款代理――房利美和房地美的资产；同时加大出口退税力度；以及让人民币重回升值轨道。本次反弹中涨势强劲的有宝钢股份、中国中铁、已经一些预期前景不佳的股票。全部都是经济增长受益型企业。

But for all the excitement, there were plenty who wanted to throw cold water on the party―indeed, the market fell back on August 21st. Those included people bullish on China's economic outlook, who reason that with reported GDP still growing above 10% and inflation high, the government has no intention of intervening in the economy. Indeed, they argue, such stimulus could be inflationary.

不过也有不少给这种兴奋情绪泼冷水的人――实际上，一天后的8月21日股市便再次下跌。这些人包括对中国经济前景充满乐观预期的人，他们的理由是根据报告中国GDP增长仍旧超过10%，且通货膨胀率仍然居高不下，政府并不无干预经济的意图。他们争论说，事实上这样的刺激会进一步恶化通货膨胀。

Meanwhile, those more pessimistic on China's prospects said such measures would do no good anyway. Trade is the main vulnerability. They note that container traffic to Europe has stalled after double-digit growth earlier this year, and that it has been contracting to America since 2007. The outlook for trade with Japan is none too bright, either.

与此同时，对经济前景持有悲观预期的人说这样的手法（政府干预）并不会起到多少作用。贸易是主要的薄弱环节，他们指出，对欧洲出口额在今年早些时候创下两位数的增幅之后，目前已停滞不前；对美出口额自2007年以来就开始萎缩。对日贸易的前景也同样不容乐观。

Meanwhile, estimates for the growth of company earnings, though still high, are coming down, too. In January profits were expected to rise by 22% this year; now growth looks more like 14% and dropping, says Markus Rosgen, Asia strategist for Citibank. The only silver lining to all this, he adds wryly, is that a bottom, even if not in sight yet, is a lot closer than it was.

同时，估算的企业盈利，尽管仍然很高，但也已经出现了下滑。今年1月，曾今年盈利增长22%；但现在看来，实际只有大约14%的增幅，而且依旧下滑，花旗银行亚洲战略分析师Markus Rosgen说。对于这一切，唯一的希望，他挖苦地补充道，是有一个底部，即便现在还看不到底在哪里，但和过去比起来这个底离我们更近了。