经济学人：另一个难以忽视的真相

A film about debt

Another inconvenient truth

另一个难以忽视的真相

Aug 14th 2008 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

Fiscal Armageddon, coming to a cinema near you

到影院感受财政末日

AMERICA'S infamous debt clock, near New York's Times Square, was switched off in 2000 after the national burden started to fall thanks to several years of Clinton-era budget restraint. However, it was reactivated two years later as the politically motivated urge to splurge once again took over. The debt has since swollen to $9.5 trillion, with the value of unfunded public promises (if you include entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare) nudging $53 trillion―or $175,000 for every American―and rising. On current trends, these will amount to some 240% of GDP by 2040, up from a just-about-manageable 65% today.

恶名昭著的美国债务大钟，坐落在纽约时代广场的附近。2000年，因为克林顿政府几年收紧预算的努力，国家负担有所缓解，这个钟也随之停转。不过，两年后当政府挥霍再次泛起的时候，这个钟又一次响起了滴答声。此后，美国债务膨胀到了9.5万亿美元，如果加上政府未兑现的公共支出（合适的称呼应当包括社会保障和医疗保险等），这个数字到达53万亿――人均17万5千美元。而且这个数字还在增长，按照当下的势头，到2040年外债总额将从今天的占GDP总量65%上升到240%。

David Walker, who until recently ran the Government Accountability Office, has made it his mission to get the nation to acknowledge and treat this "fiscal cancer". His efforts form the core of a new documentary, "I.O.U.S.A.", out on August 21st. The message is simple enough: America's financial condition is a lot worse than advertised, and dumping it on future generations would be not only economically reckless but also immoral.

大卫・沃克，美国政府问责办公室的前主管，把巨额债务称作"财政毒瘤"，并尝试尽力把这个真相传达给公众。他的努力也成了一部将于8月21日公映的新纪录片《I.O.U.S.A.》的主线。影片传达的信息很简单：美国的财政处境比它宣传的要严重的多，这种恶果正在向后代传导，这么做不单失职更是失德。

The biggest deficit of all, the film contends, is in leadership: politicians continue to duck hard choices. It hints at dark consequences. As America has become more reliant on foreign lenders, it warns, so it has become more vulnerable to "financial warfare", of the sort America itself threatened to wage on Britain, a big debtor, during the Suez crisis. Warren Buffett, America's investor-in-chief, pops up to warn of potential political instability.

根据影片内容，罪魁祸首就是政府高层：政客们争相逃避责任。然而这样的后果很严重。美国越来越依赖国外的债主们，这让它在"金融战争"当中变得非常脆弱，就像当年苏伊士危机时的英国，不得不处处听任债主美国的摆布。美国的首席投资人沃伦・巴菲特也认同这种对潜在威胁的警告。

The film is part of a broader effort to popularise the issue. In 2005 Mr Walker set off on a "fiscal wake-up tour" of town halls; sparsely attended at first, it now attracts hundreds to each meeting (though some may be turned off by the giant pie chart strapped to the side of his tour van). The young are being drawn in too, even forming campaign groups; Concerned Youth of America's activists "crusade against our leveraged future" wearing prison suits. Mr Walker is talking to MTV, a music broadcaster, about a tie-up. His profile has been lifted by a segment on CBS's "60 Minutes" and an appearance on "The Colbert Report", a satirical TV show, which dubbed him the "Taxes Ranger".

影片是整个推广活动的一个新举措。2005开始，沃克先生在各地市政厅发起了一个称作"财政唤醒旅程"的活动；刚开始很少有人响应，但现在每次聚会都有成千上万人参加（不排除有一部分是被他宣传车旁边巨大的饼状图所吸引）。越来越多的年轻人卷入其中，甚至形成了有组织的运动团体；其中一只青年活跃分子穿着监狱的服装，把自己称作"征服未来杠杠十字军"。沃克先生到音乐电视台MTV谈论收紧政策。他的履历还上了哥伦比亚广播公司《60分钟》节目的一个时段，同时还在一个称作The Colbert Report的讽刺节目中露脸，这个节目给了他一个绰号，叫"护税使者"。

Promisingly, the new film was well received at the Sundance Film Festival. Some even wonder if it might do for the economy what Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth" did for the environment―perhaps with this comparison in mind, Mr Walker and his supporters talk of a "red-ink tsunami" and bulging "fiscal levees". But, unlike the former vice-president, he is no heavy-hitter. And, even jazzed up with fancy graphics, punchy one-liners and a splash of humour, courtesy of Steve Martin, tales of fiscal folly are an acquired taste. Still, "I.O.U.S.A" is a bold attempt to highlight a potentially huge problem. "The Dark Knight" it may not be, but for those who care about economic reality as much as cinematic fantasy, it might just be the scariest release of the summer.

好消息是，这个新片子在圣丹斯电影节上面有不少收获。甚至有人认为它在经济领域可能造成的反响，会像戈尔的《难以忽视的真相》在环境方面造成的影响一样大。大概出于这样的对比，沃克和他的支持者们把债务危机称作是一场"红色海啸"正在冲毁我们的"财政大堤"。不过，他还远没有前副总统戈尔那么大的影响力。就算是画面表现力丰富，语言幽默，俏皮话连篇，正如斯蒂芬・马丁显示礼貌地指出的那样，一个财务傻瓜的故事可能并不符合太多人的口味。不管怎样，《I.O.U.S.A》仍然是揭露潜在危机的大胆尝试。也许还称不上是"暗黑骑士"，不过对于那些关注经济现状就像关注电影幻想一样有热情的人来说，本片可能是今夏最佳恐怖片。